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Global trends in electric vehicles over the next decade

November 19, 2021

Robust growth in demand for electric vehicles (EVs) is expected in 2021 as governments around the world set policies to encourage their development. In this issue, we shed some light on the latest progress in Europe, the U.S., and China.

In 2020, the European Union (EU) launched the “2030 Climate Target Plan”. The EU aims to reach zero automotive emissions by 2050. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) analysis of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), CO2 emissions standards and plans provides a roadmap for countries aiming to ban internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles and achieve electrification targets by 2030-2035.

Regulation of carbon emissions by country in 2021:

EU (NEDC): CO2 95 g/km (2020) → 59 g/km (2030)

China (NEDC): CO2 117 g/km (2020) → 95 g/km (2030)

U.S. (CAFE): CO2 140 g/km (2020) → 114 g/km (2030)

Japan (WLTP) → CO2 132 g/km (2030)

India (NEDC) → CO2 134 g/km (2030)

Europe 

According to BloombergNEF, the EU’s latest “Fit for 55” legislation package aims for a 65% reduction in new automobile emissions by 2030 vs. 2021 and to realize zero emissions by 2035. Additionally, it requests each country to enhance facilities for EVs. BloombergNEF estimates these policies can help to shorten the time, from 2050 to 2035, that is required to meet zero waste in Europe. Overall, carbon emissions of automobiles are expected to reduce to zero by 2035 vs. 95 g/km in 2021.

U.S.

In April 2021, President Biden put forward a $2.3 trillion infrastructure proposal which included $174 billion to promote EVs. On 27th May, the U.S. government passed a new law to increase the tax-free allowance per EV from $7,500 to $10,000. On 5th May, Biden signed a new policy aimed at increasing the overall size of the EV market by stipulating that half of U.S. auto sales by 2030 should comprise of EVs. Biden also set regulations requiring compact cars to meet new emission standards by 2030 and large vehicles by 2027.

China

The Chinese government has been focused on increasing the support infrastructure for EVs. By April 2021, it had constructed 65,000 charging stations and 644 battery exchange stations. In total, 176 cities and more than 50,000 kilometers of highways are covered with charging networks. The government drew attention in its 14th Five-Year Plan to the importance of developing EVs, with four key areas highlighted to promote their development:

Increase supply-chain quality, especially on improving chip and battery cell technologies as well as overall quality assurance.
Move towards the establishment of smart Internet of Things (IOT), including the construction of charging, battery exchange and network facilities.
Promote local automotive brands.
Optimize the industrial development environment to support the automotive supply chain through setting up of foundry production and discouraging unproductive investments.

According to the state’s “Technology Roadmap for Energy Savings and New Energy Vehicles 2.0”, it is estimated that by 2035 EVs will account for 50% of the automotive market in China. At the same time, the development of EVs also stimulates the growth of hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs).

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